Grêmio vs Athletico-PR Prediction: After a painful loss, Grêmio must win

After the international break, the Brasileirão returns with this match between Gaúchos and Paranaenses. Grêmio is in third place in the standings with 44 points, while Athletico-PR is in eighth place with 41 points, just three points behind its opponent. After the 3-2 defeat to Internacional in the Grenal, the Classic of Rio Grande do Sul, Grêmio fans expect that the league pause has been used to improve the team's defensive process. The defeat to the rival was painful for the Grêmio fans who are hoping for nothing less than a win against Athletico Paranaense.

The Gaúchos remain well placed, based on a solid home performance where they have secured 32 of their 44 points. Botafogo and Fluminense, with 34 and 33 points at home, respectively, are the only teams with a better home record than Grêmio. When it comes to goals scored at home, only leader Botafogo has netted more than Renato Portallupi's team. The defense is undoubtedly the most visible weakness of the Tricolor. With 35 goals conceded, one has to go all the way down to 15th in the table to find a team with a worse defense. Only the bottom six clubs have conceded more goals than the Immortal. The truth is that 25 of the goals conceded have come away from home, so victory against Athletico Paranaense is within reach for the Gaúchos if the performance at the Arena is up to their usual standard.

The Furacão drew 1-1 at home to second-placed RB Bragantino in its last match. Athletico played a good game against one of the best teams in the Série A, but the absence of striker Vitor Roque has not yet been forgotten. This match in Porto Alegre isn't going to be easy for the Paranaenses, as only Botafogo has managed to win at the Grêmio Arena in the Brasileirão. The last team to face the Gaúchos in their stadium was champion Palmeiras, who left defeated. The psychological factor could also play a part as Grêmio beat Athletico in Round 8 in Curitiba, marking the Hurricane's only home defeat. Tradition is not on the side of the Paranaenses either, who have only won 3 times at Grêmio's home in 34 Brasileirão meetings. Athletico will have to be at a high level if it wants to bring home points.

Grêmio theoretically has a better chance of winning the game. The Gaúchos are very strong at home, and at the moment, I see no reason to think that will change in this match. Athletico-PR is a good team, so the odds for a Grêmio victory are appealing as the risk-reward is good.