Fluminense vs América-MG Prediction: Fluminense must beat the last-placed team

There's no other way to look at this game. Fluminense is the favorite for this match against América-MG, which occupies last place in the standings. However, I must point out that the last time the Miners visited the Maracanã, they almost beat Flamengo, taking a point back to Belo Horizonte. In fact, it was the last point América won in the Brasileirão, in Round 16. Both teams have international matches a few days later, which could possibly lead to some changes in the starting line-ups.

The Tricolor has yet to lose at home in this league. Fluminense and leader Botafogo are the only two teams unbeaten at home. The Cariocas occupy seventh place in the table thanks to their 24 points at home. In away matches, Fluminense has only picked up seven points. In the last round, a defeat at the Arena do Grêmio showed again the difficulties experienced on the road. In this match with América, another win is likely at the Maracanã against a struggling team. However, Flu has a big game for the Copa Libertadores quarter-finals a few days later, which may cause the players to be less intense. The opposition is Paraguay's Olimpia, the team that eliminated Fluminense's rivals, Flamengo.

The debut of Argentine coach Fabián Bustos against Goiás didn't go so well. A home defeat against a direct competitor in the relegation battle is not encouraging. Bustos asked the team to focus more on their defense, the worst in the league. The Rabbit improved defensively, conceding just one goal but failing to score any. The Minas Gerais club's situation is becoming very complicated, and the points are urgent. The team has now been without a win for eight games. Despite a good international campaign in the Copa Sudamericana, relegation to the Série B seems likely if they don't react strongly.

América-MG needs a good result to boost confidence. Winning at the Maracanã would be the ideal result to start a recovery. If such a scenario were to materialize, it would be a big surprise, especially as Fluminense has yet to lose at home. Due to the Copa Libertadores match, the Cariocas may not want to speed things up too much. América also has the Sudamericana quarter-finals to play next week, but the Maracanã fixture is more important at this stage. I'm betting on Fluminense with a goal limit of 4.5 to increase the odds.