The Ashes, First Test: England vs Australia: Can England beat the odds?

The Ashes is one of the oldest rivalries in the sporting world. The historic series between England and Australia has been going on since the 19th Century and we have seen some intense games but largely there are one-sided affairs with the home side dominating. In recent memory, there is an image of Ben Stokes with both his arms up and screaming while taking England home in Edgbaston which has to be one of the most thrilling encounters in the recent Ashes history. Here we will see Australia host England in what can be a brutal affair for the visitors. For a quick overview, head to “Notes”.

Before we start comparing the personnel, we must remember that Australia has beaten England during most of the series at their home turf. 4-0, 5-0 series sweeps have been the norm when Australia hosts England. England batters and bowlers alike have been taken apart in the msot gruesome manner by the hosts. Now, let us make some comparisons.

Veteran bowling of Australia, England still figuring out combinations

Bowling combos: The Brisbane deck may not present much help for swing bowlers but fast-paced bowlers like Mark Wood, Pat Cummins, Mitchell Starc, Josh Hazelwood, and Chris Woakes can still enjoy considerable success. The Australians have an edge here as Hazelwood and Cummins alone can wreak havoc and fold the English batters under 200 on their day while England’s pace attack composed of Chris Woakes, Mark Wood, Ben Stokes, and potentially Stuart Broad prefer tracks that offer more swing-friendly conditions. To be honest, in terms of favorability of the track and the experience of bowling together, the Australia trio of Starc, Cummins, and Hazelwood can outmatch the English bowlers.

Australia’s intimidating bowling: Hazelwood and Cummins combined for 5-6 wickets per game on average against the technically sound Indian batters and they have every chance of repeating the same feat against a much lesser settled English batting unit. Starc had just 11 wickets in 8 innings against India which is below the standard he has set but an unsettled England batting can present him a chance. Then we have Nathan Lyon who can strike during crucial phases and you can see how Australian bowlers can overwhelm the English batters.

Leach of Broad?: If you ask me, I’d play Broad over Leach for one simple reason. Broad has dismissed Warner for under 10 runs a bunch of times and I know it was in England that he dominated Warner but he is uncomfortable with the bounce presented by Broad. For me, the inclusion of Leach can give someone who can hold an end but Broad is not only experienced on Australian tracks but he can also strike crucial blows early. The duo of Chris Woakes and Mark Wood can’t be underestimated either but that third or fourth bowling option can be the difference-maker in this scenario. We can’t also forget about Ollie Robinson who was scintillating versus India and may break open this game.

England batting order needs fixing, Australia holds the cards

The burden on Joe Root: With Burns and Hameed, England found some stability in the series against India. Now let us see, who comes in next. We have Dawid Malan, Joe Root, Ben Stokes, Johnny Bairstow, and Jos Buttler as the main batters in the middle order. Now, Root is in the form of his life and struck centuries after centuries against a formidable Indian attacking. Apart from him, the rest of the batting is suspect. Stokes has been on a sabbatical, Jonny Bairstow has been a in and out of the squad, Dawid Malan averages under 30 and even his place in the team isn’t fixed. Apart from them, Jos Buttler has been way too inconsistent, and thus major load can fall upon Joe Root. Who will carve out runs here? I trust Ollie Pope to come around sooner than later, he is just 23 and has a lot of promise. Will Ben Stokes light it up seeing his favorite foes?

Strong duo of Smith and Marnus: David Warner has had a tough year but on his day, he can ring one of his iconic fast-paced centuries. Marcus Harris averages below 24 and is still unsettled and can be preyed upon by the English seamers. But from there, follows a lot of trouble for England! Marnus Labuschagne averaged 53 against India and has enjoyed playing against England quite a bit. Then we have Steve Smith, whose test career average is an unbelievable 61. You can see quite clearly how the middle order of Australia has an edge over England. However, the following trio of Carey, Green, and Head can be vulnerable. Carey is on debut, Green is inexperienced and Head has had trouble scoring at the international level. Still, if you ask me, this batting attack can rack up 400 or more in the case the conditions are batting-friendly or if English bowlers get charged by Warner early on. Overall, the Australians once again have an edge here.

Average score and prediction: If we take the last three innings Australia played here then the average score of 400+ but Indian bowlers restricted Australia to under 400 and under 300 in the two innings the last Australians played here. India also scored 300+ in both innings and actually managed a three-wicket win. Even if India is at its zenith of test cricket, that was a second-string squad that beat Australia so it may inspire England. I have a belief that the English team won’t go down easily in this game and I believe that Haseeb Hameed, Joe Root, and Jos Buttler will fire as batters while Chris Woakes will make some noise as a bowler. I give 47% chance to Australian win, 22% to England’s win, and 31% for a draw. I place the overall total range from 980 to 1070 runs. Let us see!

• Openers: Marcus Harris, David Warner;
• Middle Order: Steve Smith, Marnus Labuschagne, Travis Head, Cameron Green;
• Wicket Keeper: Alex Carey;
• Seamers: Mitchell Starc, Pat Cummins, Josh Hazelwood;
• Spinner: Nathan Lyon.

• Openers: Haseeb Hameed, Rory Burns;
• Middle Order: Joe Root, Dawid Malan, Ben Stokes, Jonny Bairstow;
• Wicketkeeper: Jos Buttler;
• Seamers: Chris Woakes, Mark Wood, Ollie Robinson, Stuart Broad(not confirmed);
• Spinner: Jack Leach(not confirmed).

Here are some quick hitters related to the match:

• Joe Root has scored 109 or more runs in three of the last seven innings;
• Australia lost to India by three wickets when the team last played in Brisbane;
• England’s last Test win in Brisbane came in 1985;
• Australia has scored 369, 294, 580 in the last three innings played on this ground;
• Steve Smith averaged around 51 in the last test series against India. He lodged a century and two half-centuries;
• Pat Cummins took 21 wickets in the series against India. He was also the Player of The tournament;
• Ben Stokes averaged around 55 in the last Ashes series but that was played in England;
• James Anderson has been rested by England for this match;
• Josh Hazelwood claimed 17 wickets against India at an average of under 20;
• Haseeb Hammed has scored 63 & 68 runs in two of the last three innings;
• Rory Burns has scored 49 runs or more in three of the last five innings;
• Chris Woakes took 7 wickets in two innings when he last played in a Test match;
• Most probably one player among Stuart Board and Jack Leach will seal the final spot for the England team;
• Do check squad lists before placing bets.

• 1st Innings Score: Over 340.5 for 1.83;
• Haseeb Hameed Total Runs 1st Innings: Over 19.5 for 1.83;
• Player Performances, Alternative Outcomes: Jos Buttler TO 75.5 for 1.83.