For some reason, I’ve seen none of the experts bring up the fact that we haven't seen Manny Pacquiao in action for about two years. Meanwhile, this is a significant factor. Manny is 42 and a half years old. The word “half” is important as age can play its role, too. It’s that age when you seem to be doing great and then six months later you aren’t anymore. I think something like that happened to Holyfield when he lost to James Toney. He did alright in the gym, but getting into the boxing ring felt otherwise.
Manny, of course, is a great boxer. It’s a fact. Everybody knows that. But greatness doesn't just go away. The speed goes down, the overall skills somehow decline, and the sparkle is lost. It is particularly dangerous at his weight.
Though Pacquiao is not a welterweight, he'll be fighting for the belt in the weight class of under 66.7 kg. He's at best a super-genius lightweight (61.2 kg), who can't fight in his own division anymore. He didn’t want to when he beat Oscar De La Hoya in a welterweight fight in 2008, but now he cannot. And he will face Yordenis Ugas, a simple guy who’s good at what he’s doing. He is very cautious (not to be confused with cowardice), he will try his best to save his strength, even if he has to lose in the first half of the fight. Will he be able to do that? Maybe he will. And then he may show Pacquiao everything he’s got in the second half.
What will Pacquiao do here? Survive? That's the one thing he can't do. He'll fight. Is it going to work? I think it is. He'll keep enough strength for that.
Expert Betting Tips
All in all, I think Pacquiao is going win on points or, at the very least, for over 10.5 rounds. Anything can happen at the end. Feeling that the victory is slipping away from him, Ugas may cast aside all caution. At the same time, he doesn't have a knockout punch. If he gets in, he gets out.
Bookmaker 1xBet offers odds of 1.28 on Pacquiao's win, while the odds on Ugas are 3.78.