Spain vs Finland Prediction: Markkanen Makes History

Finland has the best tournament in history, and now they could be in contention for medals. So they need to beat the formidable Spaniards - should we expect a sensation from the Scandinavian squad?

Spain has a good chance of winning its 7th consecutive EuroBasket medal. The last time they were 3rd, and in 2015 won. This year, however, the Red Fury did not have all of its strongest basketball players: Ricky Rubio and Sergio Llull are out due to injuries. Willie and Juancho Hernangomez from the NBA and point guard Lorenzo Brown play a key role in the current squad. Willie is averaging 16.3 points on 66.7 percent shooting from the field, while Brown is shooting well from beyond the arc and averaging 6.7 assists per game. Overall, the Spaniards are seventh in assists percentage, but there is a problem with long-range shooting: 32.2 percent implementation and 19th among all EuroBasket teams.

Sergio Scariolo's men won 4 of 5 games in the group stage, sensationally losing to Belgium, and in the last 16, they encountered perhaps the most challenging opponent. The Spanish team defeated Lithuania 103-94 in overtime. The team was very efficient on offense; four players scored 13+ points on 45% shooting. Lorenzo Brown added eight assists to his 28 points, and Willie Hernangomez had 21 points and eight steals on 7-of-11 from the field. Spain won the rebounding battle against Valanciunas and Sabonis and also had nine steals.

The Finns had never reached the EuroBasket quarterfinals before: their highest was 9th place in 2011 and 2013. The emergence of a player like Lauri Markkanen has made the Scandinavian squad much stronger. The Utah forward is 3rd in the tournament in scoring average, scoring 27.8 points on 53.4% and 40.2% from beyond the arc. Sasu Salin is second on the team in scoring average (12) and has been a big help on offense in some games. In general, the Finnish national team shoots a lot from behind the arc and leads in the number of long-range attempts with a percentage of 39.1 (3rd place). Their defense is quite average, and the Finns concede a lot from strong opponents.

After three wins in 5 games in the group stage, Lassi Tuovi's charges outscored Croatia 94-86 in the 1/8 finals. The Finns valued the ball and committed only seven turnovers while at the same time winning the battle on foreign boards. Markkanen carried the offense and made 19 of 29 shots for 43 points. Sasu Salin had five three-pointers, and Edon Maxhuni was in constant foul trouble with 16 points. The rest of the team didn't help much on offense, so those three players were the main contributors to Finnish success.

Spain is vulnerable, as evidenced by the group-stage loss to Belgium. There are no superstars on the team, and Lauri Markkanen would easily be the leader if he played for the Red Fury. But the most potent player is performing for Finland, which is one reason to believe in the Scandinavian squad's success. Yes, everything rests on the shoulders of 2-3 players, but the role players could very well shoot. The Finns shoot well beyond the arc, beating the Croatians with a 37.5% three-point percentage. 

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