Spain vs Bulgaria Prediction: First match, first sensation

One of the EuroBasket contenders, Spain will face Bulgaria in the opening round. The Red Fury is severely weakened, and we are in for a sensation as early as in the first round.

At virtually every top tournament, the Spaniards are among the favorites, but this time it will be much more difficult for them. The reigning world champions often draw many NBA players, but this time they will be without their leader: Ricky Rubio is recovering from injury. Important representatives from European clubs are also missing from the roster: Sergio Llull and Alberto Abalde are also in the infirmary. Abalde was very noticeable at the Tokyo Olympics, and in some games he helped the Spanish team a lot. Sergio Llull has been replaced by Unicaja point guard Alberto Diaz who has averaged only 6.4 points per game. That's not much to say about the Red Fury lineup, since they had to naturalize Lorenzo Brown to fill the void at guard. The American gets plenty of playing time, and Juancho Hernangomez, who managed to stay in the NBA next season, is also a key player for this team.

At the end of August, Sergio Scariolo's squad played two World Cup qualifying games and both times they won by 20+. First it was the Icelanders (87-57), and then the Red Fury took on the Netherlands, 86-64. In the last game, Spain made more than half of the three-point shots, with Dario Brizuela, Rudy Fernandez, and Xabier López-Arostegui doing especially well. They made 3 long-range shots each. NBA representatives Guillermo Hernangomez and Usman Garuba were also very noticeable: both scored 10+ points.

Bulgaria made it to EuroBasket for the first time in 11 years, before that in 2009 and 2011 they were 13th in the continental forum. The key player of the national team now is Aleksandar Vezenkov who was MVP of the Greek championship twice in a row with Olympiacos. Vezenkov averaged 13.7 points last EuroLeague, and his club made it to the Final Four. He even had a chance to make the NBA, but Sacramento State declined to sign him. Most of the players on the Bulgarian national team represent their home country, and the starting five consists mostly of players over the age of 30. The team captain, Chavdar Kostov, scored 15.1 points in the country's last championship, and he got plenty of playing time in the recent EuroBasket qualifier.

By the way, the qualification matches were successful: first, Rosen Barchovski's men smashed the Cyprus national team (88-55), then defeated the Romanians (84-72). Against Romania, Aleksandar Vezenkov put on a dazzling performance, adding 15 rebounds and 7 assists to his 28 points. The Bulgarians shot slightly better from beyond the arc than their opponent, which was one of the key factors. In addition to Vezenkov, Pavlin Ivanov and Emil Stoilov fought on ofense, while Stanimir Marinov shot well from beyond the arc (2-of-4) but made only 3 of his 11 field-goal attempts.

The teams have met twice in the last 32 years, and Spain has always been stronger. The last encounter was in August 2011, with the Bulgarians losing 59-96.

• Spain won 6 of the last 10 matches;
• Bulgaria lost 7 of the last 10 matches;
• Spain scored over 80 points in 3 of the last 6 matches.

Even in comparison with the Tokyo Olympics, the Spanish team has changed drastically: Rubio, the Gasol brothers, Abalde and Llull are not in the roster. If the Red Fury are waiting for Usman Garuba, who has not had much playing time in Houston, to return in time for EuroBasket, then the team obviously has problems with their roster. The Bulgarians are weaker in terms of their roster anyway, but Vezenkov will be difficult to stop anyway. Rosen Barchovski's men have already shown that they are capable of shooting quite well from beyond the arc, although hitting 80 against the Spaniards would be nearly impossible. The Red Fury had to score 60% of their threes against the Netherlands to get past that mark here, so it's quite likely that the game will be less productive. I suggest betting on the following outcomes:

• Total Under (155.5) for 1.90;
• H2 (+17.5) for 1.89;
• W2 (incl. OT) for 12.5.

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