Poland vs France Prediction: No miracle to happen

In the first semifinal match of EuroBasket 2022, the Polish national team will face France, and the bookmakers have chosen the clear favorite. The French players are expected in the final, but is everything so obvious in this confrontation?

There have been many sensations at this year's EuroBasket but it is Team Poland's performance that has become the main surprise of the tournament. In the last 50 years, the Polish team has never reached the tournament semi-finals. However, they took 8th place at the previos world championship, and that was also a great success. The Poles have won five of their seven matches at this year's top tournament: they beat the Netherlands, Israel and the Czech Republic in the group stage and then took on the Slovenians and the Ukrainians in the play-offs. The team has only one player making 40% of its three-pointers and in the team rankings Poland is only 15th in three-point field goal attempts. Igor Miličić's squad also doesn't stand out in many other statistical areas: 21st in blocked shots, 12th in steals, 11th in assists, and 14th in turnovers. On the offensive end, it's hard to single out just one player. Four players average 10+ points apiece with Mateusz Ponitka and A.J. Slaughter leading the team.

Ponitka's triple-double did much to help the Poles sensationally knock the Slovenians out of the tournament, led by Luka Doncic. The former Zenit forward scored 26 points, 16 rebounds and 10 assists in the Polish national team's 90-87 win. In the first half, Igor Miličić's squad shot almost everything from beyond the arc, while their lead was more than 20 points. After the break, though, the Poles quickly lost their handicap. In the fourth quarter, they hit with three-pointers again and the team clinched the lead. By the way, only seven players scored in that game, with A.J. Slaughter, Mateusz Ponitka, Michal Sokolowski, Aleksander Balcerowski, and Jaroslaw Zyskowski all adding 10+ points to their stats.

With great adventures, the Blues made it to their third consecutive semifinal of the top tournament. In the group stage, the French lost to Germany and Slovenia, and in the round of 16, they were on the verge of relegation. In the last minute of the game against Turkey, the team was trailing by two points and almost got -4, but the opponent failed to convert two free throws, and then Vincent Collet's men worked well on defense. One of the main shortcomings is their frequent foul trouble. In that regard, they are the worst in the tournament. With Rudy Gobert on the roster, the Blues are still just 12th in average blocked shots, but by most measures they're in the top 10 of EuroBasket. Fournier and Gobert are dragging the offense along with Guerschon Yabusele and Thomas Heurtel averaging 10+ points.

Last game, Vincent Collet's team defeated the Italians in overtime, 93-85. The French shot well from beyond the arc, and even from under the basket with a decent percentage. There were too many losses, and the French unexpectedly lost the home-court game. In overtime, the French shot almost no three-pointers, playing more reliably, while their opponent consistently missed shots from beyond the arc. Five players scored 13+ points: In addition to Heurtel, Yabusele, Fournier and Gobert, Timothé Luwawu-Cabarrot did the same.

The teams have met three times in the last 15 years, and France has always won. The last match took place at the 2017 EuroBasket, the Blues defeating the Poles 78-75. Rudy Gobert was not there back then, the starting five of the Polish national team was also very different from the current one.

• France won 7 of 10 games;
• Poland won 7 of the last 10 matches;
• France earned 80+ points in four games in a row, playing OT twice.

We do not want to belittle the merits of the Polish national team, but it was largely by chance that they reached the semi-finals. And also thanks to the crazy support from the stands at the Mercedes-Benz Arena. The team created a sensation, beating the Slovenians, but before that, they had not been very stable. The defeats by the Finns and Serbs did not happen in vain, and against Slovenia they scored only 6 points in the third quarter, which is also very indicative. Three-pointers won't stay in the game forever, especially against France, which knows how to play defense.

The Blues combine well, they have a player who can create the momentum for a shot at the EuroBasket level, they have Gobert who can make the paint and win the fight under someone else's basket, and not allow the bigs to turn around. Aside from endless shots from beyond the arc, the nominal home team has little to offer. Underestimating their opponent on the part of the French national team is out of the question, so the favorite for us is really obvious. We suggest betting on the following outcomes:

• H2 (-8.5) for 1.90;
• TU (160.5) for 1.80;
• W2+TU (160.5) for 2.14.

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