Miami Heat vs Detroit Pistons: Heat has big goals this season

In this cult classic clash, the Detroit Pistons will face off the Miami Heat. However, the Pistons 4-12 record rather diminishes the cult classic status and the Heat is 11-6 so far this season. Although the Pistons will play on their home floor, the team is yet to beat a team with a winning record. For a quick overview, head to the “Notes” section.

Stats are against them: Detroit’s defense is one of the most, if not the most fragile in the league. Opponents shoot around 48% against them and this is the worst effort percentage-wise by any team. Teams shoot around 39% from three versus Detroit and that is again among the bottom two in the league. Despite the struggles, Pistons forces around 15.5 turnovers per game and it is the tendency to go for steals rather than play position defense that can hurt the team. Offensively Pistons are averaging under 100 for the season but have scored 107 points or more thrice in the last five games.

Too young: Pistons field a lot of newcomers in the league. Among regular starters, Killian Hayes, Isiah Stewart, and Saddiq Bey are second-year players, Cade Cunningham is a rookie and only Jerami Grant is an experienced player. This youth factor usually shows in its full flow during late-game situations. But yes, Cade and Bey on average can scrap up 30 points or so every game but Killian Hayes has shot just 30% or so far. Meanwhile, Stewart is primarily a rebounder and the team relies on Jerami Grant for major scoring duties.

Enticing core: Heat has a wonderfully built lineup. The Guard position offers two above-average three-point shooters in Kyle Lowry and Duncan Robinson. At wing, Lowry can bury 23-28 points every night, Tucker is a defensive presence while Adebayo in the middle can also collect 18-23 points usually every game. If we talk about the bench, Tyler Herro brings some oomph to the guard position and can line up 20-25 points on most nights. The Heat is tight defensively with Lowry-Butler shutting the perimeter, Tucker a known defensive threat, and Adebayo guarding the middle.

Statistically sound: Miami has not allowed more than 105 points in the last five games, holding teams to under 100 thrice. The team boasts of a top-five defense and the perimeter is sealed. In terms of rebounding, Heat allows just 40.7 boards a game which is among the best efforts in the league. Heat is also top-ten in regards to offensive rebounds, gathering around 11 a game. Miami figures in the top ten in various metrics related to offense and defense. The squad will go up against the Pistons who are in the bottom three in many categories.

Here are some quick hitters related to the game:

• Heat is 4-1 against teams that have under 50% wins.
• Heat is 5-5 away from home.
• Miami has a 4-4 record in the last eight games.
• Pistons are a poor 2-7 at home.
• Pistons are 0-11 against teams that have a winning record. They are yet to beat a team that has a winning record.
• Heat has scored 100, 112, 113, 103, 111 in the last five games.
• Pistons have scored 116, 102, 97, 107, 127 in the last five games.
• Oppositions have scored 103, 97, 98, 90, 105 in the last five games against the Heat.
• Oppositions have scored 121, 105, 89, 129, 121 in the last five games against the Pistons.
• Jerami Grant leads the Pistons in scoring.
• Jimmy Butler leads the Heat in scoring.
• Isaiah Stewart will not play the game due to a suspension which will weaken the rebounding and defense even more for the Pistons. Kelly Olynyk, Killian Hayes, and Chris Smith also remain out.
• Markieff Morris and Victor Oladipo remain out for the Heat. Duncan Robinson and Marcus Garrett are questionable too.

Points Range: Considering the recent trends and taking into account both team’s defense, the total seems to be somewhere around 205-220. Why this range? Well, Heat can put up 110-120 against Detroit while the team can also shut the hosts down and limit them to 95-100.

Verdict: The Heat is miles ahead of Pistons both in experience and depth, this should be an easy win for Miami.

• W2 and Total 2 Over 108.5 for 2.07 - Yes;
• Player Props: Player Assists: Bam Adebayo Over 3.5 for 2.30;
• Total: O 208 for 1.90.