Golden State vs Denver: Expect a drop in performance

Golden State got off to a strong start in the playoffs, and the bookmakers expect the Warriors to defeat Denver for the 2nd time in a row on their home court. Will the Warriors be up to the task?

The Warriors have won 6 straight games, finishing 3rd in the West and making the playoffs against 6th-ranked Denver. There are plenty of questions for Golden State right now. Is Steph Curry, who was injured late in the regular season, fully healthy? Can Klay Thompson produce the same outstanding performances as he has had this season? Will Jordan Poole be ready for the playoffs? That last question, by the way, can already be answered in the affirmative with some certainty. In his postseason debut, Poole scored 30 points and helped the Nuggets to a 123-107 win. Curry and Thompson also shot well from beyond the arc and Andrew Wiggins and Draymond Green were effective on offense. Green, by the way, added 3 blocked shots to his 12 points and 9 assists and was largely responsible for the team holding the basket as Kevon Looney was constantly outmatched by Jokic. 

The Nuggets have a very difficult time expecting to reach the 2nd round of the playoffs, as Jamal Murray and Michael Porter Jr. have missed almost the entire season. Murray won't be back this campaign, but Porter isn't ruling out that he could help Denver as the series with Golden State progresses. Nikola Jokic played incredible basketball during the regular season, while none of his teammates averaged more than 15 points per game. The Nuggets have good roster depth, but their rotation has changed even in comparison to the last playoffs. Facundo Campazzo is not getting playing time, having been ousted by rookie Bones Hyland and Bryn Forbes, who joined the club as the season progressed.

Last game against Golden State, Michael Malone's men struggled on defense but still allowed more than 120 points. Nikola Jokic was nearly flawless in the end zone at first but then missed both from beyond the arc and from under the basket. Aaron Gordon wasn't very visible, nor did Will Barton performance, who scored 24 points on 10 of 18 from the field.

Denver have been pretty good defensively overall on the season, and they have been able to shut down star players in individual games in past playoffs. The Golden State scored a lot of tough shots in Game 1. Curry is not yet in the best form, and he too is hitting at a low percentage in some games. Jordan Poole doesn't have much playoff experience, and Klay Thompson sometimes doesn't even score from under the basket. The Nuggets' offense was generally efficient enough last game that we shouldn't expect a big surge. In addition, the Warriors are among the league's best defensively, so do not expect much in the way of good basketball. I suggest wagering on the following outcomes:

• Total Under 224.5 points for 1.68;
• Denver Handicap (+7.5) for 1.82;
• Denver win including overtime for 3.40.