Boston Celtics vs Oklahoma City Thunder Prediction: Celtics to win

Boston has beaten Oklahoma City in only 3 of their last 6 head-to-head encounters, and the Celtics have won only once in the last 6,5 years by 10 points or more. Bookmakers expect the Celtics to win comfortably – will those expectations hold true?

The Celtics have won their last six regular-season games, moving into second place in the Eastern Conference. Neither Malcolm Brogdon's injury nor Jaylen Brown's one-game absence has been a hindrance, and Boston has long been successful in managing the loss of Robert Williams. During the six-game stretch, the Celtics made 40% of their three-pointers, averaging over 40 attempts. Boston was combining well and giving up 28.0 assists, committing a minimum of losses. Jaylen Brown and Jayson Tatum were the undisputed leaders of Boston's offense, Al Horford along with Brogdon and Smart were expected to help the club's stars, but Sam Hauser was the biggest revelation of recent games. Hauser has averaged 10.7 points, and he's a big part of the Celtics' success in hitting well from beyond the arc.

Last game against Detroit, Horford, Brogdon and Brown did not play but Boston still won, 117-108. Jayson Tatum had one of his best games this season, hitting 7 3-pointers for 43 points. Sam Hauser and Derrick White had no shots from beyond the arc, but Grant Williams and Marcus Smart backed them up. Smart, in addition to his 18 points, recorded 10 assists and 5 steals, so in hockey terms he can be considered the game's 2nd star.

The Thunder were once again expected to be somewhere around last place in the Western Conference before the start of the season, but so far they're 10th. Oklahoma City Thunder won their last 2 games of the regular season, but before that they were just short of beating Milwaukee at home (132-136). The credit for the team climbing so high can be attributed to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, who is averaging 31.1 points. There's no question about the Canadian guard's skills: He shoots well from beyond the arc and has a knack for the basket, and he's getting the lion's share of points closer to the basket. Josh Giddey isn't even close to stardom yet, but he's good at running the offense and helping the team move the ball around, creating easy field-goal positions. Tre Mann and Darius Bazley will likely miss the game against Boston. As for the rest he had no losses except for Chet Holmgren who is out for the rest of the season.

The day before Mark Daigneault's team had a super-high-scoring game against New York, 145-135. The problems on defense were evident from the very beginning of the game and Oklahoma let up 38 points in the 1st quarter but were already leading by halftime. All five Thunder players made at least 50% of their shots on the floor and Jalen Williams, Isaiah Joe and Mike Muscala did well off the bench. Three Oklahoma players scored 20+ points in that game: In addition to Shai Gilgeous-Alexander, Luguentz Dort and Josh Giddey did the same.

Boston is particularly strong at home. They are working more intensively on defense, so it will be especially difficult for their opponents. Horford and Brown will be back in action and will add to the Celtics' reliability in their own half. Oklahoma relies heavily on the passing game, and they will have a hard time breaking down the Celtics' defense on a position offense. Giddey is unstable in finishing offenses and is unlikely to shoot even 40% from the field. And they will have to play Gilgeous-Alexander personally for sure. Our prediction for the Boston-Oklahoma game is as follows:

• H1 (-10.5) for 1.75;
• TU (229.5) for 1.845;
• W1 by 21+ Points for 4.20.

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