Chicago White Sox vs. Detroit Tigers.
04.06.2021. Guaranteed Rate Field (Chicago).
The White Socks and Tigers open a four-game showdown tonight at Guaranteed Rate Field in Chicago. It's a little unfamiliar to contemplate the Socks in first place in the American League Central Division, Detroit last in the same division as usual.
The main sign of the first game of the series, however, is a duel of strong pitchers. Last year's C Young Award contender from Chicago, Lance Lynn, will face off against Detroit's pitching hope, young franchise talent Casey Mize. Unsurprisingly, the Bucs have only rolled up 7.5 points on the total. The Sox are heavy bookmakers' favorites with 1.5 win odds, but let's take a closer look at this matchup.
The Socks are very strong at home
As mentioned above, Chicago is in the first place, and they have a terrific home record with 20-9 in wins. The offense with a .255 batting average is fourth in the American League. The team offense is sixth overall in the MLB standings, although only 23 home runs have been hit.
Leading the offense is 3rd base player Yoan Moncada with a .301 batting average. The Cuban did not leave the field without hits in the last series against Cleveland, and he scored one in the first game of the series. Tonight, Montiada will surely be in the bookmakers' individual rosters for both hits and injuries, and who better to punch out the enemy pitcher than him. After the Cuban are Jose Abreu and Yermin Mercedes, although the former's numbers are still far from the brilliant last season.
Like last year, Chicago White Sox pitcher Lance Lynn is a real candidate for the C Young Award. He has had a very strong start to the season with a 1.37 ERA and 0.93 WHIP, and has managed to zero out five starts on the season, including his last game against Baltimore. This monster doesn't allow more than 0.68 home runs per nine-inning average, the best defensive performance against the Hamsters of Lynn's career so far. The other statistic that is used to calculate a pitcher's performance on the xFIP slide is the league average home run to flyball ratio instead of the actual number of home runs a pitcher misses. Lynn's xFIP is 3.97 - in other words, he hasn't had a strong offense against him much so far, plus luck. With an xFIP of 3.97, Lynn won't be able to keep his ERA that low for long.
The sleepy Tigers offense is beginning to wake up
Detroit leads the AL Central Division with a 23-32 overall record and 10-17 on the road. But things aren't so bad offensively, with a .297 on-base percentage and an offensive leader in left fielder Robbie Grossman with a .397 slugging percentage. The Tigers are 5-5 in wins in their last five games, and the offense has outscored opponents by five points.
Detroit's offense can definitely take credit for the last two weeks: They were last in the league in offense but managed to move up to 14th overall. Jonathan Hoop, who leads the team in home runs with seven homers, has suddenly opened up in the last 13 games. The day before, the second-base player hit two homers against Milwaukee and has not left the field without a hit in four straight games.
Detroit pitcher Casey Mize is slowly gathering hype around his persona. After seven lackluster starts last year, Mize started the season 3-3 with a 3.28 ERA, and his May record is 4-1 in wins with a 1.74 ERA. He has allowed just six runs, though he has pitched against lineups from Boston, the Yankees, and Seattle. Mize was already out against the Chicago White Sox in late April and allowed three runs in six innings, a game that ended 3-1 in favor of the Socks.
Experts betting tips
Despite all the success the Sox had in April and May, the odds of them winning look very low. Pitcher Lynn is good, but his ERA won't stay below 2.00 all season. Slumps are inevitable, and the Tigers' hot offense is in a position to give Lance a very bad night. The pitcher Mize is also playing better than his usual numbers, but he's had a great May much more consistently than Lynn. Mize's play on the slide will determine the outcome of this game. If he stands, Detroit will not only hold the lead but also win.
The Tigers offense is starting to wake up, but even with the recent series against the Yankees and Milwaukee, Detroit remains a lowly team with 4-1 on downs in its last five games. Lance Lynn has only played three top games on the season, but the Sox defense has let them down badly. Let's hope the defense is steady tonight and doesn't allow the offense to score more than 7.5 points.
The recommended bet is Detroit To Win at 2.7.