Sydney Swans vs Melbourne Demons Prediction: A competitive start expected in this opener

The kickoff for the 2024 AFL season's opening round is scheduled for Thursday morning at the SCG, where the Sydney Swans will play host to the Melbourne Demons. Anticipating a strong performance throughout the season, both clubs have aspirations of reaching deep into September 2024, making a victorious start crucial to their campaigns. Below, I offer a preview of the upcoming clash and provide insights into the best betting opportunities.

After their elimination by the Carlton Blues in the first week of finals in 2023, the Sydney Swans are determined to make significant strides in 2024 and position themselves as genuine premiership contenders. The team took an assertive approach during the off-season, making strategic moves to strengthen their squad and securing valuable recruits. Brodie Grundy is set to assume the primary ruck duties, transitioning from a less successful stint with the Demons. The midfield is reinforced with the additions of James Jordon and Taylor Adams, providing crucial depth.

Regrettably, injuries have already become a concern for the Swans, even before the commencement of the home and away season. Adams suffered a four-week knee injury in his inaugural appearance in the red-and-white last weekend, adding to the challenges. Additionally, key players Callum Mills and Luke Parker are set to miss a significant portion of the upcoming matches due to their own injury setbacks.

For the second consecutive year, the Melbourne Demons faced disappointment by exiting the AFL finals in straight sets. In the opening week, they succumbed to the eventual premiers, Collingwood Magpies, with a narrow 60-53 defeat. Subsequently, in the second week, they fell short against the Carlton Blues in a closely contested match, concluding with a 73-71 scoreline. This outcome was disheartening for the Demons, especially considering their top 4 finish and the initial hopes of contending for, or even winning, the grand final.

Despite the playoff setbacks, Melbourne showcased formidable strengths in the previous season. They held the title of the best defensive team in the AFL, conceding only 1660 points at an impressive average of just 72.17 points per game. Additionally, their strong rankings in inside 50s (2nd) and contested possessions (3rd) indicated their potential to be top contenders in the AFL once again in 2024.

The addition of Shane McAdam from the Adelaide Crows is expected to bolster the forward line alongside Jacob van Rooyen and Kysaiah Pickett. Caleb Windsor, the No. 7 draft pick, has demonstrated his capabilities to secure a spot in the starting 18, likely featuring in the center from the opening round.

These teams faced off twice during the 2023 home and away season, with the Demons securing victories on both occasions. The first win came at home with a convincing 50-point margin (134-84), followed by another triumph on the road by 21 points (77-56).

The Swans, who narrowly clinched a spot in the top eight last season, may encounter challenges in the early stages of 2024 due to injuries to key players Parker, Mills, and Adams. Additionally, it might take a couple of weeks for Grundy to establish proper chemistry with his new midfielders. Jordon, a fresh face in the engine room, will also need to quickly adapt to John Longmire’s system.

In my view, the Demons boast a more settled lineup, with players already familiar with the team's expectations. The only notable absence is Kozzie Pickett (suspension), and having Oliver available is considered a significant bonus.

Despite the unpredictability of the first game of a new season, I'll err on the side of caution by placing a wager of only 1.5 units on the Demons to secure the win.