By the end of 2026 there will be more than 50 million autonomous vehicles on the road, with over 15 million in the Far East and China alone, Juniper Research has predicted.
Demand for autonomous vehicles is expected to be kickstarted by a confluence of societal shifts, smart city mobility schemes and technology infrastructure, the company said in a new report.
These trends include the establishment of underlying vehicle-to-everything (V2X) networking infrastructure, as well as softening demand for vehicle ownership due to the emergence of concepts such as mobility-as-a-service, where autonomous vehicles are rented or hired rather than owned.
The US and China are expected to lead the way in terms of autonomous vehicle adoption, with the markets collectively accounting for nearly 65% of autonomous vehicles sold worldwide in 2019.
“The US has all the key ingredients for autonomous vehicles to operate at scale,” report author Michael Larner said.
“Federal and local authorities supporting AV trials, Silicon Valley and universities spawn firms that can deliver the technology, many local competitors are introducing driverless technologies plus the car remains vital for commuting and leisure travel.”
Next year is also expected to be a milestone year for the nascent industry, with the launch of vehicles that no longer require the driver's full attention.
Other leading countries among 20 evaluated for autonomous vehicle readiness for the report include Singapore, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia and India the report states.