An analysis of India's mobile subscriber base suggests that it isn't the font of boundless growth it appears to be.
While India has long been thought to be second only to China in terms of the sheer size of its mobile market, Wireless Intelligence estimates that nearly a third of the estimated 850 million Indian mobile customers are inactive.
Nearly 250 million mobile connections were inactive in the fourth quarter – the equivalent size of major mobile markets such as Brazil and Russia – the firm said, citing figures from regulator Trai.
If these figures are accurate, it means India's mobile penetration would be more accurately 48%, compared to the official estimate of 68%.
In some circles, such as Mumbai, inactive subscribers account for more than four in ten mobile customers.
The increase in inactive subscriber figures is down to the effects of mandatory SIM registration rules, and to Trai decreasing the period of dormancy before users are considered inactive, Wireless Intelligence said.
There are also strong indications that the telecom sector's revenue growth is slowing to a stop in the face of shrinking ARPU.