TrueMove may just have won Thailand’s next 4G battle early due to MCOT’s decision to relinquish part of its 2,600-MHz holdings for 4G, spectrum which happens to favour Chinese-style band 41 TDD 2.6 LTE rather than rest-of-world type band 7 FDD 2.6 LTE.
The past couple of weeks have been an exercise trying to figure what is real and what is not in one of those vivid waking dreams. Who is in charge of the 4G auction? Three factions of the National Broadcasting and Telecommunications Commission seem to be vying for the limelight alongside the ICT Minister Pornchai Rujiprapa and Deputy Prime Minister Pridiyathron Devakul who was the first to throw 2600 into the arena.
On the NBTC side we have NBTC secretary-general Takorn Tantasit (the most senior executive who has regular job until he retires or is impeached), NBTC telecoms chair Setthapong Malisuwan (who would be the one in charge if it were not for the tiny detail that a new NBTC act is in the pipeline which will soon leave him in the queue at the job centre) and the new NBTC board headed by a general whose name I cannot recall who wants a three month delay to sort out more spectrum and 1800-MHz defragmentation.
Oh, and there’s also the Digital Economy Commission which will soon (once the new laws are passed) be in charge of the NBTC though right now they are leading anyway by virtue of being chaired by the Dear Leader.
The Thai junta’s controversial article 44 that gives it absolute power has already been invoked in the telecoms sector, ordering the legislature not to select a new NBTC commissioner to replace Suthipol Thaweechaikarn who resigned and went over to the Office of the Auditor General. Yes, the Suthipol who overruled a NBTC sub-committee report that True had accidentally rolled out its 850-MHz network without a licence saying that the sub-com never explained why True needed a licence to begin on that CAT spectrum and told them to rewrite the report. That was the end of the story and nothing was heard since. But I digress.
So the five-member NBTC telecoms board is down to four without a legal expert (Suthipol) and, any day now will be just an acting NBTC when the new NBTC with a unified 7-member telecoms and broadcasting board is enacted.
But back to the auction. What started as a simple re-allocation of expiring 900- and 1800-MHz concessions has now evolved into a not just a witches’ brew of 900-, 1800-, 2300- and 2600- but also with serious questions on how best to defragment the legacy 1800-MHz spectrum and whether to go with Chinese style TDD or rest-of-word FDD on 2600-MHz.
Things are relatively clear-cut on 900-MHz. 17.5 MHZ of ex-AIS spectrum is up for grabs and a further 2.5 of what was AMPS 800 guard band will be added to make it 20 MHz. No more 900 is available as Thailand also does American style 850-MHz 3G. Well, relatively straightforward as it may be involved in a swap for 2300.
Fragmentation is the key problem on 1800-MHz. Currently the plan is to auction 12.5 MHz of ex True and 12.5 MHz of ex AIS (DPC) spectrum. With most licences around the world being in multiples of 10-MHz that 2.5 MHz could be a huge waste or perhaps, maybe, sort of useful for a narrow-band 1.6 MHz LTE carrier for slow M2M communications depending on who you ask.
From low to high, 1800 currently has 12.5 MHz of True, 25 MHz of Dtac, 12.5 MHz of AIS (DPC) and another 25 MHz of Dtac. Dtac has offered to return its unused upper 25 MHz and shuffle itself down in if it can run LTE on the spectrum it has. The NBTC (Takorn) has said that a committee would be set up to look at Dtac’s proposal but that any extra 1800 would be auctioned sometime next year, apparently ruling out defragmentation (for now).
Obviously nobody seems to think of the big picture and how those 2.5-MHz end bits will be used or wasted or how the spectrum will be defragmented at a later date. Obviously that is somebody else’s problem. Literally and figuratively with a new incoming NBTC.
TOT currently has 64-MHz of 2300 and has offered to return it for auction in exchange for 900 on which to run the network it inherits from AIS this September. Either that or it might use 20 MHz for 4G in exchange for, well, something.
But when it comes to 2600, the real fun starts. For weeks people have been arguing about 2600 without actually defining what 2600 actually is. Are they arguing about FDD band 7 (which is pretty standard and well supported) or band 41 (Chinese style TDD?). Everyone says 2600 while nobody seems to want to spell out what they are arguing about. Half the industry says 2600 is not a standard frequency, the other half says it is.
But it was one comment from True CEO Supachai Chearavanont that gave it away. He said that there is 120-MHz of 2600 available.
Band 7 only has 70 MHz of paired spectrum. Band 41 has 194 MHz. Nobody talks about paired spectrum by doubling the numbers. Suddenly all those comments made sense. Obviously True was pushing for band 41 and with its partnership with established band 41 player China Mobile, all the pieces fell into place.
Sigve Brekke said that 2600 was not standard even though Digi and half the Telenor empire uses it. But they use band 7, not 41.
Most of the rest of the industry, myself included, said that 2600 was standard, of course thinking of band 7. In hindsight only Brekke knew what Supachai was thinking and he and his PR team never spelt it out.
MCOT has offered to return 60 MHz of 2600-MHz (2356-2584 MHz and 2592-2608 MHz) in exchange for $309 million (100 million Baht). But looking at what it is offering to return this would mean that Thailand could only go for Chinese-style band 41 TDD LTE as the spectrum on the table simply does not line up to band 7’s FDD spacing unless Pridiyathorn manages to get more soon.
Fragmentation aside (the Public Relations Department has sued the NBTC over another 24 MHz of 2600 it has), is suddenly deciding to lock the country into a Chinese-stye future a good idea especially unders such rushed, haphazard circumstances?
The decision to go for more spectrum for 4G (usually a good idea) was made by deputy Prime Minister Pridiyathorn who said Thailand should use 2300, 2400 and 2600 for 4G, but everyone knows he really meant 2500.
Of course, more spectrum is a good thing and everyone wants faster speeds, but in the mad rush to get the auction done, Thailand risks wasting 5 MHz on 1800 and going into bed with the Chinese for a generation. Not that it is the worst choice in the word given the rise of the China, but it has been made in haste and without proper thought or due process.
Thailand’s 4G auction is developing like a race with changing rules and goals while the racer is undergoing an organ transplant mid-race. But as I said before, chances are it will happen despite all of this. The auction will just be a front for show while the elite make a deal in the backroom and the state telcos continue to enjoy a mandate to squander precious monetary and spectrum resources on nebulous PR projects in the name of helping the poor while in fact all they are doing is helping to enrich the elite brokering these deals even further.