LTE will overtake 3G to become the dominant mobile connection in developed Asia-Pacific (DVAP) in 2015, Analysys Mason predicts.
DVAP's early lead in LTE adoption means that LTE's share of connections reached 28% in 2013. The research firm expects LTE to account for 53% of connections in 2015 and 70% by 2018.
Mobile data consumption in the region is meanwhile expected to grow sixfold over the next five years. Mobile data revenue reached $67.3 billion in 2013, and is on track to hit $84.5 billion in 2018.
The rapid growth in LTE subscribers and mobile data consumption is expected to help telcos address the trend of declining ARPU. In demonstration of this, Analysys Mason said the advanced LTE market of South Korea is the only one in the region where this trend is reversing.
Smartphones grew to become the dominant mobile handset in developed APAC during 2013, accounting for 53% of handsets in use. Analysys Mason expects smartphone penetration in the region to climb to 85% by 2018.
Mobile SIM penetration is meanwhile expected to grow from 117% in 2013 to 130% in 2018, by which time there will be over 313 million mobile connections. But mobile markets in countries such as Hong Kong and Singapore are showing clear signs of saturation.
Growth in the number of fixed broadband connections will start to slow over the next few years, the company added. The number of DSL connections decreased at a CAGR of 5.9% between 2009-2013, but fiber connections increased at a CAGR of 12.6% in the same period.
Overall telecom retail revenue in DVAP is expected to increase by $10.4 billion from 2013-2018, with mobile revenue accounting for about 70% of the growth.