China is expected to dominate the 5G market by 2025, accounting for 40% of all subscriptions, according to CCS Insight.
South Korea, Japan and the US are expected to be first out of the blocks with 5G, with launches planned on a limited scale as early as late 2018. But China will quickly take over, achieving 100 million connections in 2021 and over 1 billion in 2025, the research firm forecasts.
Globally, 5G subscriptions are on track to reach 280 million in 2021 and grow to 2.7 billion in 2025, with most markets having deployed 5G by this time.
CCS Insight has meanwhile raised its estimates for total 5G connections in 2020 by more than 50% from its previous forecast in October to nearly 60 million. Its projection for 2021 has also been increased by 25%.
"The industry might be struggling to establish the business models for investment in 5G, but this isn't stopping leading operators battling for bragging rights to launch the first networks,” CCS Insight principal analyst for operators Kester Mann said.
“Competitive forces and the need for capacity are the leading drivers of early deployment, although we caution this could set unrealistic expectations for initial network capability.”
Meanwhile the first 5G smartphones are expected to emerge in 2019, but there will be relatively few by this time, the company said. The real ramp up is expected in 2021, by which time over 350 million 5G handsets will be sold worldwide.