Asia is expected to account for about two-thirds of the 7 billion mobile subscribers worldwide by 2015, ROA Holdings said in a report.
The report covers 10 countries in Asia that are assumed to show key movements in the near future. These include China, India, Indonesia, Japan, South Korea, Malaysia, the Philippines, Singapore, Taiwan and Vietnam.
Taken together, China and India are currently occupying almost 75% of all mobile subscribers in the 10 countries, but Indonesia, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Vietnam are following with a rapid growth rate.
ARPU is meanwhile expected to continue showing a decreasing trend. Particularly in India, the Philippines and Vietnam, ARPU is projected to slide to $3-$4 by 2015, from more than $5 in 2008.
As for mobile penetration, India will experience a three-fold growth by 2015, while China, Indonesia, the Philippines, and Vietnam will see a significant increase.
Vietnam and Indonesia – both markets where prepaid services dominate - have churn rates that surpass 10 %. India, Philippines, China, and Malaysia also depend on the prepaid segment, but their churn rates are within the range of 3% to 6%, due to characteristics in each country and regulatory issues.