The Asia-Pacific mobile market will grow to $290 billion in 2011, driving revenue growth in an otherwise slowing global market, according to Ovum.
While Ovum has revised its regional revenue growth forecast for 2009 down to 8% from 10%, CAGR will remain at a relatively stable 6.6% until 2013, the research firm said.
"The recessionary impact on mobile in Asia will be relatively muted, and led by China and India, mobile service revenue will continue to grow," analyst Nathan Burley said. "By 2014 Ovum expects total Asia-Pacific mobile operator service revenues to reach $326 billion."
Ovum predicts 6.42 billion mobile connections worldwide by 2014 - a 59% growth from 2008. China and India will account for 30% of these, with penetration rates at 76% and 69% respectively.
Mobile ownership will reach 78% in Asia by the end of 2014, Ovum said, but noted that the metric is ceasing to be a useful indicator as customers shift to multiple SIMs and data services.
ARPU will continue to decline, it said. Connections will grow by 80% from 2008 until 2014, but revenue will grow by just 40%.
And while outgoing MoU will rise 155% between 2008 and 2014, voice revenue will grow by just 20%. Voice will continue to be the largest revenue generator over this period, accounting for 66% of revenue in Asia-Pacific.
"Therefore, efficient networks, enabling competitive pricing, will be critical in both highly saturated mature markets and low-ARPU emerging markets," senior analyst Steven Hartley said.