The race for the 2024 Ballon d’Or is becoming hotter each day, but we can now go back to bed and expect the decisions from the organisers. This year will be the 68th edition of the event, and the award will be based on the performance of footballers in the world for the 2023/24 season. For the first time, UEFA will co-organize the Ballon d'Or gala alongside France Football. The event is expected to be held on the 28th of October 2024, with the nomination list expected to be out on the 4th of September 2024. Vinícius Jr. has been leading the race before the summer international events, but Rodri seemed ready to wrestle it with him. Below are analyses of the contenders, probability and odds.
Bet on Ballon d’Or 2024 with Bet365Ballon d’Or 2024 Winner Odds
| Player | Country | Club | Winner Odds | Probability |
| Vinícius Jr. | Brazil | Real Madrid | 1.83 | 54.6% |
| Rodri | Spain | Manchester City | 2.50 | 40% |
| Jude Bellingham | England | Real Madrid | 8.00 | 12.5% |
| Dani Carvajal | Spain | Real Madrid | 15.00 | 6.7% |
| Lamine Yamal | Spain | Barcelona | 21.00 | 4.8% |
| Lionel Messi | Argentina | Inter Miami | 26.00 | 3.8% |
| Nico Williams | Spain | Athletic Bilbao | 34.00 | 2.9% |
| Lázaro Martínez | Argentina | Inter Milan | 41.00 | 2.4% |
| Kylian Mbappé | France | PSG* | 41.00 | 2.4% |
| Toni Kroos | Germany | Real Madrid | 41.00 | 2.4% |
| Harry Kane | England | Bayern Munich | 41.00 | 2.4% |
| Phil Foden | England | Manchester City | 51.00 | 2.0% |
| Unai Simon | Spain | Athletic Bilbao | 67.00 | 1.5% |
| Julian Alvarez | Argentina | Manchester City | 67.00 | 1.5% |
| Erling Haaland | Norway | Manchester City | 67.00 | 1.5% |
| Emiliano Martínez | Argentina | Aston Villa | 81.00 | 1.2% |
| Cristiano Ronaldo | Portugal | Al Nassr | 101.00 | 1.0% |
| Kevin de Bruyne | Belgium | Manchester City | 101.00 | 1.0% |
| Florian Wirtz | Germany | Leverkusen | 101.00 | 1.0% |
- *Kylian Mbappé has now completed a transfer to Real Madrid.
The Top 3 Contenders
| Vinícius Jr. | Rodri | Jude Bellingham | |
| Appearances | 42 | 56 | 49 |
| Goals | 26 | 10 | 25 |
| Assists | 11 | 14 | 14 |
Vinícius Jr.: Can the Bad Copa América 2024 Outing Affect His Shine?
Vinícius Jr. remains the frontrunner in the Ballon d’Or 2024 race despite having a bad Copa América 2024 campaign. At the competition, Vinícius and Brazil couldn’t make it past the quarterfinals, but what Vini had done for Real Madrid during the 2023/2024 season has still kept him up until this stage. Vini was crowned the 2023/24 UEFA Champions League Player of the Season by the UEFA's Technical Observer panel after an eventful season with Real Madrid in the Champions League, scoring six goals and providing five assists in the competition.
Individual Honours and Titles
- UEFA Champions League
- La Liga title
- Spanish Super Cup
- UEFA Champions League Player of the Season
- UEFA Champions League Team of the Season
- La Liga Team of the Season
- Supercopa top scorer
- La Liga Player of the Month: March 2024
- 2023 Samba Gold
Rodri: Another Jorginho’s Hype for the Spaniard
Rodri became a new face in the Ballon d’Or race after a successful Euro 2024. However, despite this new support for Rodri to win the Ballon d’Or, I don’t think he deserves the hype. Any player who wasn’t in the race before the international competition is not worthy to be seen as a favourite. His fate can be compared to 2021 Jorginho. He got all the hype but later came third in the race. It won’t be a surprise if Rodri finishes 3rd this year as well.
Individual Honours and Titles
- FIFA Club World Cup
- UEFA European Championship
- UEFA Super Cup
- English Premier League
- English FA Cup runner-up
- FIFA Club World Cup Golden Ball
- UEFA European Championship Player of the Tournament
- Globe Soccer Awards Best Midfielder of the Year
- UEFA European Championship Team of the Tournament
- The Athletic European Men's Team of the Season
Jude Bellingham: His Possibility of Winning the Ballon d’Or Died a Natural Death after the Euro 2024
Jude Bellingham was undoubtedly the best player in the first part of the season, scoring 14 goals in his first 15 games for Real Madrid. He broke Cristiano Ronaldo’s record of 13 goals in his first 15 games for the club. However, the hype dropped before the end of the season, and he also missed out on the chance of getting back the hype at the Euro 2024 despite scoring crucial goals for England and winning the silver medal with England. Bellingham won the Best Young Player of the 2023-24 UEFA Champions League. He had four goals and five assists in 11 Champions League games.
Individual Honours and Titles
- UEFA Champions League
- La Liga
- Spanish Super Cup
- UEFA European Championship runner-up
- La Liga League Player of the Season
- UEFA Champions League Young Player of the Season
- UEFA Champions League Team of the Season
- La Liga Team of the Season
- La Liga Player of the Month: August 2023 and October 2023
- Globe Soccer Awards Emerging Player of the Year
- Laureus World Breakthrough of the Year
- The Athletic European Player of the Season
- The Athletic European Young Player of the Season
- The Athletic European Men's Team of the Season